US midterms on 3 November will decide Congress — and Europe is watching too

The United States will hold its midterm elections on 3 November, when eligible voters will re-elect the whole House of Representatives, the lower chamber of Congress, and one third of the Senate. The result will show whether President Donald Trump's Republican Party keeps control of the legislature, and it is being awaited not only in Washington but also in Europe.

Turnout and polls

Media report unusually high activity in early voting. An analysis by the University of Florida found that by the weekend more than 50 million Americans had already cast ballots. The latest polls are unfavourable for Republicans: they are backed by slightly more than 43% of voters, while Democrats have about 51.5%. That does not guarantee a Democratic victory, but many analysts forecast a "blue wave" — if not in both chambers, then at least in the House.

Trump's rhetoric

Speaking on Fox News, Trump said that if Democrats win, he would actively obstruct their initiatives in Congress using his veto power, aiming to force opponents into compromise. His campaign rhetoric has gone much further. At a rally in Kansas over the weekend, he said it was his last rally before the election and claimed he wanted to stop "communists and jihadists" from taking control of Congress. He accused Democrats of fielding the most radical candidates in American history. Whether his appearances will help the Republicans is unknown; some party members have tried to distance themselves from him and even urged that his speeches be cancelled.

Impact beyond the US

According to Bloomberg and the Financial Times, a plan for more massive strikes on Iran has already been prepared for the period after the election. Gulf states fear it would bring even greater destruction and destabilisation in the region. In Europe, Politico reports, diplomats are worried about a NATO-related diplomatic clash: if a Democratic-majority Congress limits Trump's domestic powers, he might try to cement his legacy in foreign policy, where he has more freedom of action. That could mean withdrawing thousands of US troops from Europe as part of a review of US force levels there, due to be completed by December.