US Plans for New Fossil Fuel Infrastructure Surge as Renewable Growth Slows
A new report finds the US is lining up its largest build-out of fossil fuel infrastructure in a decade while wind and solar growth slows. The authors warn that gas projects could lock in higher pollution and electricity prices for decades.
The United States is building more fossil fuel infrastructure than it has in a decade, while growth in renewable energy slows. That is the finding of a report published last week by the nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund and the research firm Atlas Public Policy. Electricity demand is rising faster than it has in over ten years as more data centers, factories and electric vehicles connect to the grid. The authors say decisions made now will shape the grid's cost, reliability and emissions for decades.
How the energy mix has shifted
The US still generates 60 percent of its electricity from fossil fuels, but renewables have gained ground quickly. In 2024, wind and solar together produced more electricity than coal for the first time. Solar was the fastest-growing source of new generation that year, accounting for 81 percent of added capacity.
The picture has changed since Donald Trump began his second term as president. His administration has sought to curb renewable projects by issuing stop-work orders, blocking permits and removing tax incentives. New solar and wind farms are still arriving, but many belong to the last wave of projects that benefited from Biden-era incentives.
Growth in gas projects
The report, which analyzes data from the US Energy Information Administration, shows that fossil fuel infrastructure rose from 5 percent of planned new capacity in 2024 to 30 percent by the second quarter of 2026. If the trend continues, it could reach 70 percent of the development pipeline by the end of the decade. Planned fossil capacity would hit 68 gigawatts by 2030, a 45 percent increase from construction plans six months earlier.
Many plans could still collapse, particularly if forecasts of AI data center energy demand prove overblown. For now, renewable projects are being canceled more often than fossil ones: 4.9 percent versus 2.9 percent.
Costs
New utility-scale solar and wind remain cheaper, averaging $68 to $69 per megawatt-hour versus $90 for new combined-cycle natural gas plants. Fossil fuel prices are also more volatile, especially since the US started a war with Iran. Gas and coal plants emit air pollutants and greenhouse gases, adding health costs. Electricity bills have risen across the country as utilities upgrade grids and build new infrastructure to meet growing demand.
