Study: Lithium-Ion Battery Emissions Could Grow Tenfold by 2050
Researchers at the University of Melbourne estimate that making lithium-ion batteries currently accounts for 0.18 percent of annual greenhouse gas emissions, a share that could grow at least tenfold by 2050. The team compared ways of cutting those emissions by reducing the number of batteries that need to be produced.
A research team led by Haiwei Zhou at the University of Melbourne in Australia has examined how much greenhouse gas the production of lithium-ion batteries generates and how that could be reduced. These batteries are a key part of the energy transition, as they power electric vehicles and energy storage systems. The findings matter because, as battery use expands, so will the pollution tied to making them.
A small share now, but a growing one
The first task of the energy transition is to electrify areas such as transport and heating while ensuring the electricity comes from renewable sources. Once the largest sources of emissions have shrunk, smaller ones start to matter more. The researchers estimate that battery manufacturing emissions currently make up 0.18 percent of annual greenhouse gas releases, and that this could rise by a factor of 10 or more by 2050.
Ways to cut emissions
Several approaches can lower the emissions of a battery. Some elements used in lithium-ion chemistries take more energy to mine and refine than others. The manufacturing process has many steps that could be made more energy-efficient. Recycling returns materials to the supply loop and needs much less energy than mining.
The researchers, however, wanted to compare options on the demand side. Instead of reducing the carbon footprint of each battery, the aim is to cut the number of batteries that must be made, avoiding their emissions altogether.
Methodology
The team used projections of emissions across the life cycle of batteries in electric vehicles and energy storage through 2050. These account for regional differences in demand and electricity generation, drawing on future scenarios from the International Energy Agency. As a result, the estimated savings are compared not only with today's industries but with a future world featuring more batteries, more end-of-life batteries to recycle and a cleaner electrical grid.
