One Nation capitalises on Australian economic pessimism, reaches record polling highs
Australia's One Nation party, tapping into voter frustration over cost-of-living and housing affordability, has surged to unprecedented polling numbers by linking these issues to immigration.
In the three decades since Pauline Hanson entered federal politics, voter frustration with mainstream parties has flared up repeatedly. But only recently has this negative sentiment propelled One Nation to record polling levels, giving Hanson higher net approval ratings than the prime minister and opposition leader.
Economic strains and 'stagflation impulse'
Households are experiencing economic pressures reminiscent of the 1970s, characterised by high inflation and a stagnant economy. Economists call this a "stagflation impulse" – a cost-of-living squeeze coupled with fear for financial stability and job security. Australia's notoriously high housing costs and the despair of younger generations unable to afford homes have intensified the winter of discontent.
Consumer sentiment surveys show deep pessimism, worsened by interest rate hikes. While financial strain is not new, researcher Jordan McSwiney notes that One Nation has now tied housing affordability and economic woes to immigration. The party uses a "bait and switch" tactic – addressing front-of-mind issues like the economy to steer the conversation toward its preferred topic: immigration. It also links cost-of-living pressures to its opposition to net zero emissions and renewables.
Housing crisis and immigration
The housing problem stems from years of chronic undersupply and investor-friendly tax policies, with prices outpacing wages for 25 years. High migration, now subsided, can pressure rents but also provides workers for construction and addresses skill shortages. AMP's chief economist Shane Oliver urges a balanced approach to avoid drastic cuts that harm the economy.
One Nation blames immigration explicitly. Hanson recently stated that "immigration policy has our country in a state of crisis." The Coalition has already linked migration to housing supply, legitimising One Nation’s stance, while the party uses social media "engagement farms" to promise simple solutions at no cost to voters.
Reasons for the surge
Interestingly, the first wave of inflation and cost-of-living pressures in late 2021 did not spark such support. The surge came during the second wave starting late last year, exacerbated by the Iran war. Australians now feel worse because they face new price and mortgage hikes on top of depleted savings, and their financial and emotional resilience is wavering. An OECD report shows real hourly wages falling, with purchasing power eroding.
Professor Gabriele Gratton explains that voters react to a "sequence of economic shocks," losing trust in elites and seeking alternatives. One Nation's popularity will be tested at the next federal election, due by 2028. Hanson must navigate increased scrutiny; talk of a "monoculture" and ending multiculturalism may alienate voters.
Labor has no quick fix for housing, ensuring it remains a major issue. McSwiney says Labor's long-term policies improving everyday lives could deflate One Nation's appeal. The Coalition, meanwhile, needs to present a credible opposition.
