Brazil Heads Into Sunday's Presidential Runoff as Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro Close Campaigns

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro are holding their last rallies on Saturday on the beaches of Rio de Janeiro, wrapping up a bitter campaign before Sunday's presidential runoff. The vote will decide whether Brazil remains one of the few left-led nations in the region or joins right-wing governments that are friendly with US President Donald Trump.

In the first round, Bolsonaro took 47% to Lula's 45%. Over three weeks of intense, acrimonious campaigning, however, the left-wing incumbent appears to have recovered some ground. The final televised debate took place on Friday night. It was calmer than the first, which devolved into insults and lacked policy proposals. Lula attacked the senator's lack of experience, while Bolsonaro accused the president of leaving behind a "broken country." Bolsonaro asked why things are so expensive, and Lula said his rival does not know what hunger is.

The candidates

Lula, 80, is seeking a historic fourth, non-consecutive term. He started out as a union worker and became Brazil's first working-class president. During his first two terms the economy grew thanks to a commodities boom, while social programmes, including direct cash assistance, helped lift millions out of poverty. He later spent more than a year in prison on corruption convictions that were eventually annulled, and he won a third term in 2022. His approval rating has at times fallen as low as 24% this term, as voters voice concern about crime and the cost of living.

Flavio Bolsonaro, a former lawyer, began his political career at 21 as Rio's youngest elected state lawmaker. His father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, is barred from running because he is serving a 27-year sentence under house detention for staging an attempted coup after losing to Lula in 2022. The son has taken up the right-wing agenda, largely embracing his father's ultra-conservative politics while trying to soften his communication style to appeal to centrists. Hard-line security policies are a pillar of his campaign, and polls show they are popular. He has promised to tackle crime, create 500,000 more prison places and cut government spending. His campaign has been overshadowed by his admission that he accepted millions of dollars from disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro to produce a film about his father's life. He is under investigation for corruption, money laundering and tax evasion in connection with the case.

International repercussions

Brazil plays a vital role in curbing global warming by protecting the Amazon rainforest. Deforestation hit a record high under Jair Bolsonaro, and his son has also denied human-caused climate change, committing only to stopping illegal deforestation. In recent years new clearances fell to a record low as Lula's government stepped up satellite monitoring and targeted law enforcement.

Lula has repeatedly warned the US not to meddle in Brazil's elections and has made defending national sovereignty a key campaign issue. Trump announced 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods last year, citing among other reasons the trial of Jair Bolsonaro, and imposed a new round this year. He also designated Brazil's biggest drug-trafficking groups as foreign terrorist organisations shortly after receiving Flavio Bolsonaro at the White House, a move Lula's administration opposed as a pretext for intervention. A Bolsonaro win would add Brazil to Latin American countries such as Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica and Peru that have elected Trump-friendly governments in recent years.