Brazil's presidential run-off: Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro fight for every vote
Brazil holds the second round of its presidential election on 25 October, pitting incumbent left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva against right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro. Polls show a gap of only a few points, and the campaign has moved onto social media and into the courts.
Brazil holds the run-off of its presidential election on 25 October, with incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party facing right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro. In the first round on 4 October, Bolsonaro took about 47% of the vote and Lula about 45%. Polls suggest the race remains extremely tight, and the outcome is widely expected to be decided by just a few points.
A digital battle
After the first round, both camps stepped up online mobilisation. Andre Janones, a member of parliament from Minas Gerais allied with Lula, created a WhatsApp channel called “Lula's army”, which gathered more than 8 million followers within days. It sets activists challenges to carry out on social media and on the streets. Lula's campaign, criticised for inertia before the first round, has been handed to younger party officials, and the president has begun filming videos with activists under 30, hoping to reach some 6.9 million young non-voters. Lula himself admitted this is the least-organised campaign he has taken part in since 1989.
On the Bolsonaro side, young MP Nikolas Ferreira, who has 25 million followers, leads his own online “troops”, which use AI-generated content to disparage left-wing rallies.
The fight has reached the courts too. Lula's camp accused Meta of “algorithmic manipulation” in Bolsonaro's favour and asked the Superior Electoral Court to annul his candidacy. Bolsonaro, in turn, accused Lula of “abuse of power” for flooding WhatsApp with content praising the government's record. The court threatened Meta with a fine of around R$500,000 (€88,500) per day, and the company says it has introduced measures to ensure equal treatment of both candidates.
Polls and debate
An AtlasIntel poll on 9 October gave Bolsonaro 52.8% to Lula's 47.2%; ten days later it was 51.1% to 48.9%. Datafolha, Quaest and CNT/MDA show a gap of only one or two points. Meanwhile, Lula won a victory in Congress when the Senate voted 75 to 1 to end the six-day work week, a measure the Bolsonaro camp initially opposed but ultimately backed.
The first debate, on 18 October on the Band channel, was dominated by insults rather than detailed policy on security, health or the economy. Political scientist Joao Ferres said it mostly hurt Bolsonaro, who came across as aggressive. After the debate, Janones was taken to intensive care with severe cardiac arrhythmia.
