Czech, Latvian and Swedish intelligence chiefs expect Russia to step up provocations
Heads of three European intelligence services told The Guardian that Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe is likely to intensify in coming months, though they differ on the likelihood of an actual invasion of NATO territory.
The heads of the Czech, Latvian and Swedish security services said in separate interviews published last week by The Guardian that they expect Russian sabotage and provocations in Europe to intensify, while offering differing assessments of the risk of an armed incursion into NATO territory.
Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Security Information Service (BIS), said Russia could attempt a limited incursion into a NATO country bordering Russia, or stage a false-flag provocation, within months rather than years. He said such a scenario could include a limited invasion, false-flag provocations and a large-scale influence campaign, though he added that many people are working to prevent it.
Normunds Mežviets, head of Latvia's State Security Service (VDD), said there are no signs of an imminent attack. He acknowledged indications that Moscow is preparing for more decisive action in Europe, but said it remains unclear whether these represent concrete plans or are simply part of a broader strategy to spread fear and uncertainty in Western societies. According to The Guardian, Baltic politicians who have long criticised Western Europe for a soft stance toward Russia now find themselves urging some Western leaders to tone down public statements, fearing that talk of an imminent invasion could damage their societies and economies.
Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden's military intelligence and security service, said he sees no sign that Moscow is ready for genuine negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. He described the recent incident involving an explosive-laden drone at Leipzig airport, which German authorities have linked to Russian intelligence, as a turning point.
All three intelligence chiefs agreed that regardless of how events unfold, Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe is likely to intensify in the coming months. They said the goals include reducing support for Ukraine, sowing division within NATO, and instilling fear among European populations. Mežviets noted that Russia is shifting from chaotic acts of sabotage and arson aimed at spreading panic toward targeted attacks on facilities linked to Western support for Ukraine. Koudelka added that the sabotage campaign also strains intelligence resources, since doubts often persist even when incidents turn out to have other causes.
