Four new prime ministers reshuffle European Council's political arithmetic
Since the last European Council meeting, four EU member states have changed prime ministers, altering the balance in the bloc's most powerful decision-making body, especially on budget, energy, and Ukraine issues.
Four new prime ministers will join EU leaders in Brussels on Thursday, reshuffling the political arithmetic inside the bloc's most powerful decision-making body. Since the last European Council meeting eight weeks ago, leadership changes in four member countries — about 15 percent of the EU's 27 heads of government — have created fresh uncertainty about how leaders will line up on the EU's biggest fights. The changes come just as governments prepare for battles over the bloc's next €2 trillion budget, energy policy and foreign affairs.
Hovering over the summit is another question: Who inherits the role long occupied by Viktor Orbán? The former Hungarian prime minister spent years frustrating colleagues by blocking, delaying and bargaining over EU decisions. With Orbán now out of office, diplomats are looking for signs of where opposition may emerge in the Council's next chapter. "The biggest change with those four will be the one that's not there," a European diplomat told POLITICO.
The pro-EU conservative: Hungary's Péter Magyar
Forty days after taking office following a landslide victory that upended Hungary's political order, Péter Magyar has already transformed Budapest's relationship with Brussels. His government has unlocked billions of euros in EU funds that had been frozen for years under predecessor Viktor Orbán. By stepping aside on Ukraine and allowing Kyiv to launch the first phase of EU accession talks, Magyar has further cemented his reputation as a constructive, pro-European leader. Diplomats describe him as a "skillful" operator. The bigger question is where Magyar will preserve elements of Orbán's agenda: on energy, he has pledged to wean Hungary off Russian imports — but only by 2035, well beyond the EU's 2027 target; on migration, he plans to keep the border fence erected by Orbán in 2015 and opposes the bloc's migrant relocation quotas.
The Ukraine skeptic: Bulgaria's Rumen Radev
Bulgaria's former president, who resigned in January, launched his own party and swept to victory, will attend this summit as head of government for the first time. His arrival could complicate efforts to maintain the EU's united front on Ukraine. Radev argued last year that Kyiv is "doomed" in its war against Russia and opposed increasing EU military aid. He also blamed European leaders for backing Ukraine's counteroffensive, saying it had resulted in "hundreds of thousands" of casualties. Several Brussels insiders are wary; diplomats say Bulgaria could become a stumbling block in negotiations over future sanctions on Russia.
The Israel defender: Slovenia's Janez Janša
A familiar figure in Brussels, Janez Janša is returning to the European Council for a fourth stint as Slovenia's prime minister. He is a strong supporter of Ukraine but could be obstructive on Israel. Janša opposes sanctions on Israel's national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and has reversed Slovenia's arms embargo on Israel, hailing it as a "new era" in bilateral relations. However, if Germany softens its stance, Slovenia may become more willing to fall into line.
The Russia hawk: Latvia's Andris Kulbergs
After a political crisis caused by Ukrainian drone incursions into Latvian airspace, parliament voted in Andris Kulbergs as new prime minister. A businessman-turned-politician with no party affiliation, he entered parliament in 2022. His government's priority is bolstering anti-drone defenses. Kulbergs has pledged to continue Latvia's steadfast support for Ukraine, signing a drone deal with Kyiv in his first days. Latvia ranks among the EU's top defense spenders alongside Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia.
