CIA chief's unexplained Moscow trip fuels speculation over Russia's next move
The unexplained visit by the CIA director to Moscow comes amid rising tension between Russia and the West and reports that President Putin may be weighing a limited attack on a Nato member.
A US official told Politico that the meeting was primarily meant to warn Russia against escalatory action targeting the Baltic states. Tensions are rising on multiple fronts: a UK foreign ministry spokeswoman said on Thursday that Russia could strike British military targets in retaliation for Ukrainian strikes using British missiles, while an explosive-carrying drone found at an airport in Leipzig, Germany, was assessed by security experts as probably Russian in origin.
News of the CIA chief's visit followed reports that US intelligence had assessed Putin could be planning a limited assault on a Nato ally. Putin faces growing domestic pressure to break the current deadlock, as Ukraine's long-range drone strikes have battered Russia's energy sector, causing fuel queues and fires at oil refineries. The Kremlin views these strikes as part of an indirect war being waged by Nato through Ukraine.
Possible scenarios
Russia's response could range from intensified ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine, including on central Kyiv, exploiting Ukraine's shortage of Patriot interceptors, to a lower-key attack on a country such as Lithuania — a move that might be calculated not to trigger Nato's Article 5 mutual defence clause.
Lithuania holds particular strategic importance because of the Suwalki Gap, a roughly 60-mile stretch of land bordering Poland that separates Russia's ally Belarus from the Kaliningrad exclave. Seizing this corridor would cut off the Baltic states from their Nato neighbours by land.
Another possibility raised is the use of tactical nuclear weapons to pressure Ukraine into capitulation, despite the 81-year taboo against their use. With no official confirmation of the trip's purpose, other explanations remain possible, including efforts to persuade Russia to end military cooperation with Iran, discussions on prisoner swaps, or the prospect of a mass mobilisation of Russian troops.
