DeepState: At current pace, Russia won’t capture all of Donetsk Oblast even by 2027
Russia recorded few territorial gains during its bloodiest month in 2026, making Moscow’s goal of seizing the rest of Donetsk Oblast less likely.
According to the analytical group DeepState, Russian forces have made only minimal territorial advances this year, despite suffering the highest monthly casualty toll since the start of the war. This trend suggests that Moscow’s objective of capturing the entire Donetsk Oblast is unlikely to be achieved even by 2027, should the current pace of offensive operations continue.
Analysts point out that the Russian advance has slowed considerably, even as losses have mounted. The latest month saw only marginal gains on the battlefield, falling short of the ambitious targets set by Russia’s military leadership. DeepState’s observations indicate that the current dynamics of the offensive do not support predictions of a quick and complete takeover of Donetsk Oblast.
Such developments may mean that fighting in the region will persist for the long term, raising questions about Russia’s ability to meet its strategic objectives. Military experts emphasize that heavy casualties and slow progress underscore the resilience of Ukrainian defenses and the exhaustion of Russian resources.
