Ten years after the Paris accord: are climate talks still delivering?

Ahead of this year's UN climate summit, Cop31, a Guardian analysis asks whether international climate talks are still achieving anything ten years after the Paris agreement was signed in 2015. The treaty aims to limit global heating to 1.5C above preindustrial levels, but temperatures have exceeded that threshold for two years. The UN's most optimistic estimate now points to roughly 1.7 to 1.8C of warming.

Criticism of the process

At last year's summit in Belém, Brazil (Cop30), the hosts removed countries' concrete emissions-cutting plans from the negotiating agenda, treating them as a matter for national governments. Some global south diplomats said there was little left to negotiate, with the US having withdrawn from the agreement under President Donald Trump. Decisions require consensus, so Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela and other petrostates often block measures. Fossil fuels were addressed directly for the first time only at Cop28 in Dubai in 2023, without a timeframe or backing policies.

The rate of warming has risen from 0.2C a decade in 2015 to 0.4C a decade today. Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, says a path towards 2.6–3C of warming is a global failure, yet adds that Paris is all the world has.

Signs of progress

Cop31 will be held in Turkey but presided over by Australia. Positive signs cited include Lula's re-election in Brazil, election outcomes in Serbia and Hungary, and strong public support for climate action. A group of nearly 60 countries met in Colombia in April and agreed to draw up national roadmaps to transition away from fossil fuels; France, Germany and the Netherlands have done so so far.

In Pakistan, rooftop solar supplies about a quarter of electricity, while Chinese electric cars make up more than 40% of car sales in Vietnam. Experts suggest Cop31 could agree a target of 35% of final energy use coming from electricity by 2035, up from 23% today.