Security Adviser: Abu Dhabi Talks Unlikely to Bring an End to Fighting

Trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia and the United States on the war in Ukraine begin on Tuesday in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates. Rainer Saks, security adviser to the President of Estonia, believes no major breakthrough should be expected and that a halt to hostilities will most likely not be reached this time.

What is likely to be on the agenda

Saks says the key thing to watch is which topics end up on the table and what is publicly declared as the subject of discussion. Russia has repeatedly stressed that only so-called technical issues will be addressed, namely how to ensure a truce is respected once agreed, so that isolated incidents do not reignite the fighting.

Previous trilateral talks also touched on humanitarian matters: prisoner exchanges and the return of Ukrainian children deported to Russia. In Saks's assessment, neither Ukraine nor the US has claimed that politically sensitive topics will now be discussed. The sides may exchange information on them, but negotiations on those issues appear unlikely.

Security guarantees and Russia's demands

Saks explains that without agreement on how exactly to enforce a ceasefire regime, it cannot practically be established, so these questions ultimately become political. Another possible topic is security guarantees for Ukraine. In his words, this requires the participation of a third party, most likely with a military component, and discussion of the issue is reportedly part of the plans.

He says the main reason people claim Russia wants talks but not peace is its demands: in return for ending hostilities, Russia is asking Ukraine for additional territory and seeks direct influence over Ukraine's internal political process.

What to expect next

Some expectations remain: it is important that a diplomatic process toward a more stable peace gets under way. Saks acknowledges that Ukraine undoubtedly needs these talks, but says it is best not to get ahead of events. First, it will be seen whether further rounds of talks are announced after the Abu Dhabi meeting.