Cost of living in Europe: US election result warns incumbents, but gives Le Pen hope

The heavy defeat of the Republican Party in the US midterm elections is being read in Europe as a warning to those in power. US President Donald Trump rose to power partly on anger over the cost of living, but that anger has now turned against him. Elections are also approaching in Spain, Italy, France, Greece and Poland, where rising prices and unaffordable housing could become decisive issues.

Italy and Spain

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whose government has already faced waves of protests over fuel prices, may find herself in a difficult position. Irene Tinagli, a member of the European Parliament for Italy's opposition Democratic Party, said Trump promised to cut the cost of living and bring back quality jobs, but that this did not happen.

In Spain, affordability is one of the main campaign issues ahead of an election scheduled for Nov. 29. Most polls suggest the far-right Vox party, which accuses Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of failing to meet basic needs, could win enough seats to enter government for the first time as a coalition partner of the conservative People's Party.

An opening for Le Pen

Mathieu Gallard, research director at polling firm Ipsos, said incumbents are vulnerable whatever their political leaning. He pointed to the defeat of Hungary's Viktor Orbán this year and a sharp fall in support for the Sweden Democrats.

For France's far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen, who is the frontrunner in next spring's presidential race, voter discontent is an opportunity. Party lawmaker Alexandre Loubet said the cost of living will be the main campaign issue. Le Pen is campaigning for affordable housing, protection of pensioners from budget squeezes and lower energy taxes. At her party congress, she adopted President Emmanuel Macron's slogan "Renaissance" as her campaign motto.

Centrists, meanwhile, have struggled so far: former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has failed to gain traction with a message of economic realism. In Germany, Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democrats have lost several elections.