European Commission raises EU pork production forecast for 2026

The European Commission, the EU's executive body, has revised its short-term forecast for pork production in 2026. According to the Polish farming portal Farmer.pl, citing the industry outlet Euromeatnews.com, EU output is now expected to rise by about 0.5% to roughly 22.18 million tonnes. The change matters for pig farmers across the bloc, including in the Baltic states, as it points to continued supply pressure on the market.

From decline to growth

In spring, the Commission still projected production to fall by about 1%. The forecast changed because slaughter data for this year has so far been higher than EU experts originally expected. The Commission still anticipates fewer pigs being slaughtered in the second half of the year than in the same period last year, but the drop is judged to be less severe than expected in spring.

Exports to China set to drop sharply

The Commission projects that EU pork exports will fall by 0.5% to just under 2.97 million tonnes in 2026. Shipments to the Chinese market are expected to shrink by 32%. Higher sales to other non-EU countries will offset the loss of Chinese demand only in part. The situation is further complicated by African swine fever, which is present in many European countries, including major EU producers Spain, Germany and Poland.

Consumption almost flat

Pork consumption in the EU is forecast to rise only marginally: 33.2 kg per person in 2026, compared with 33.0 kg in 2025. The self-sufficiency rate will barely change, at 115.2% versus 115.4% last year.

The Polish outlet describes the outlook for the sector as unfavourable. Oversupply of raw material, which is global in scale, is named as the main cause of the crisis. This limits opportunities to sell pork outside the EU, and because of higher production costs, EU producers find it increasingly hard to compete with Brazil and the United States.