European Allies Fear Tougher Trump Stance on NATO If Republicans Lose Midterms
European NATO members worry that a loss for US President Donald Trump's Republican Party in the midterm congressional elections could push him to act more forcefully against the alliance. One possible step cited is a further withdrawal of US troops from Europe, Politico reports.
European allies are concerned that a defeat for US President Donald Trump's Republican Party in the congressional midterm elections, due on 3 November, could prompt him to take more aggressive action against NATO, the North Atlantic defence alliance. The US outlet Politico reports, citing diplomats, that allies are already preparing for a "worst-case scenario".
Why the concern
Democrats are forecast to win control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate. Trump's approval rating is reportedly at the lowest level recorded so far. If Congress constrains him on domestic policy, he could try to cement his legacy in foreign policy, where as commander-in-chief he has far greater latitude. Three diplomats suggest this could mean pulling several thousand more US troops out of Europe.
A senior defence official from a European country said presidents nearing the end of their term often either vent accumulated frustration or engage in foreign policy adventures. In his view, attacks on NATO appear to be an integral part of Trump's worldview.
Possible steps
According to the diplomats, Trump could also cut US contributions to the alliance's common budget, restrict PURL, the NATO-backed programme for purchasing weapons for Ukraine, and deepen ties with Russia.
In theory, a Democratic majority could limit the president's room for manoeuvre on defence and foreign policy. US law currently sets a minimum of 76,000 American troops stationed in Europe. However, Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow at the think tank Defense Priorities, notes that the Trump administration routinely ignores Congress's instructions on funding and diverts money to purposes lawmakers have not approved.
She also stressed that if broad troop reductions go ahead, Europe would find it very hard to replace the lost capabilities, particularly in electronic warfare, air defence, intelligence and surveillance, aerial refuelling and certain types of logistical support.
Not all allies are so pessimistic about Trump's ability to deal NATO a crushing blow. One diplomat from a NATO member state said reliable forecasts require a rational decision-maker, adding that he did not believe the current US president belongs in that category.
