Exit polls show PM Kulbergs' party leading Latvian election as coalition partner falters

Exit polls published Saturday evening from Latvia's parliamentary election show Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' centre-right United List party leading with 35.6 percent, according to public broadcaster LSM. The results suggest Latvia will maintain its pro-European and pro-Ukrainian policy direction, even as populist parties also performed strongly in a campaign shaped by concerns over Russia and the cost of living.

Kulbergs, who became prime minister only in May, told journalists the result exceeded expectations and reflected a public desire for change — specifically economic growth and a better future for the country's children.

Coalition shake-up ahead

Despite pre-election polling suggesting his coalition would weaken, the outcome now points to it being unable to continue in its current form. Coalition partner the Union of Greens and Farmers appears to have won only 3.7 percent, below the five-percent threshold required for parliamentary representation. Combined with projections for other coalition parties, this means Kulbergs will likely need to negotiate a new governing coalition.

Analysts caution that exit polls, while generally reliable, may understate support for more radical parties, since some voters are reluctant to admit backing them. Observers expect final results to show stronger support than currently projected for parties favoured by Russian-speaking voters, namely Sovereign Power and Latvia First.

Populist gains

Security dominated campaign debate in Latvia, a NATO and EU member on the alliance's eastern flank, but populist parties gained traction by emphasizing domestic economic concerns. Sovereign Power, which critics label pro-Russian, finished fourth with 10.8 percent after campaigning against military aid to Ukraine and further defence spending increases. Most major parties have ruled out cooperating with it.

Latvia First, led by businessman Ainars Slesers, placed second with 11.3 percent and is seen as a more plausible coalition partner. The Progressives, a pro-European social democratic party backing stronger social protections and continued Ukraine support, came third with 11.1 percent.

Latvia has sharply raised defence spending since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, now allocating nearly five percent of GDP to defence. Voting behaviour among the country's Russian-speaking minority is also shifting, with more voters basing choices on economic and social issues rather than identity alone. Preliminary official results are due Sunday, after which attention will turn to what could be lengthy coalition negotiations.