Expert: US-Iran standoff trapped between diplomacy and military pressure

Barbara Slavin, a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center and former director of the Atlantic Council's Future of Iran Initiative, describes the standoff between Washington and Tehran as a dangerous mix of military escalation, diplomatic ambiguity and political calculation.

According to Slavin, genuine diplomacy is currently absent. Recent indirect contacts between the United States and Iran, mediated by Qatar, have been too limited and too fragile to produce any real breakthrough. She calls the process "kabuki diplomacy" — both sides engage only partially while positioning themselves to avoid any appearance of compromise.

Fallout spreads across the region

The consequences already extend well beyond the direct US-Iran confrontation. Saudi Arabia has been drawn deeper into the conflict, the Houthis continue to threaten regional security and shipping, and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has had major consequences for global energy markets.

Both Washington and Tehran face domestic political pressure not to appear as if they are bowing to the other side. For President Trump, the political cost of looking weak would be too high. For Iran, sustained pressure on oil markets may actually create an incentive to wait rather than compromise.

Diplomacy expected to remain elusive

Slavin expects genuine diplomatic progress to remain out of reach in the coming months. The key question, she says, is whether either side can step back from brinkmanship without sacrificing its hardline political stance.

Still, she believes it is meaningful that contacts have taken place at all. The real challenge, in her view, is turning these exchanges into a sustained process capable of ending the war — rather than simply managing an endless cycle of threats and escalation.