Analyst: Putin unlikely to ever pursue peace deal with Ukraine
ICDS director Kristi Raik says Russia is escalating attacks on Ukraine and believes it can outlast its opponent, making a genuine peace agreement with Putin unlikely. She calls for stronger air defense support and tougher sanctions.
Kristi Raik, director of the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) in Estonia, says Russia is intensifying its attacks on Ukraine and that, because Russian leader Vladimir Putin believes his country can hold out longer than its adversary, it is unlikely he will ever genuinely pursue a peace deal with Kyiv.
According to Raik, Moscow is working to spread fear not just in Ukraine but among its allies, aiming to erode Europe's will to keep backing Ukraine. Since the war is not going well for Russia at present, it is taking on greater risks, betting that Europe won't respond with stronger countermeasures — a bet that, so far, has largely paid off given the relatively weak European response.
Response called insufficient
Raik acknowledges that Western states have not been entirely passive, but says their measures have fallen short of what's needed, pointing to Germany's response to the Leipzig-Halle Airport incident as an example. She stresses that continued support for Ukraine is essential, and that Russia must not be allowed to intimidate allies into scaling back assistance. Instead, she argues this is precisely the moment to strengthen Ukraine's air defenses and tighten sanctions on Russia, noting many available options remain unused.
Warnings of further attacks
At an Arctic meeting in Rovaniemi, Friedrich Merz and Donald Tusk warned of decisive weeks ahead — a reference, Raik says, to Russia's plans for further attacks in Europe. She notes that the countries whose support matters most to Ukraine, led by Germany, are the primary targets, and that contrary to common assumptions in Western Europe, the Baltic states have not recently been the main focus, since conditions for Russian influence operations are, in her view, more favorable in Germany or France.
Raik also observes that US President Donald Trump has not taken any significant steps to pressure Russia, even as his stance toward Ukraine has occasionally softened. Asked whether the core problem with US-mediated talks is that Washington wants peace far more than Moscow does, Raik agreed this currently appears to be the case. She said no one she encountered in Ukraine expects the war to end before next spring, as Russia keeps attacking more forcefully while Putin still hasn't achieved his stated goals there — leaving him, in her assessment, with little alternative but to continue the war, possibly scaling back military activity only if it becomes too costly or dangerous for Russia.
