Experts: Estonia's presidential candidate search has dragged on
Political experts say this year's presidential election differs from previous ones because only one party has put forward a party member as a candidate, and no nationwide campaign aimed at the electoral college is being run. This could lead to a deadlock.
According to political experts, Estonia's upcoming presidential election looks different from previous races: so far, only one party has nominated a candidate who belongs to the party. The search for candidates has stalled, and potential contenders have not been carrying out a nationwide campaign targeting the electoral college. Political scientist Tõnis Saarts said that in the past, when the incumbent president was not seeking re-election, parties usually began looking for candidates early, because it was clear the vote could move to the electoral college. Candidates would spend July and August visiting local governments to secure support from electoral college members.
Examples from 2016: Allar Jõks and Eiki Nestor announced in May, Marina Kaljurand and Siim Kallas in April, and Mailis Reps was nominated by the Centre Party in June. All of them campaigned across Estonia to some extent. Sociologist Juhan Kivirähk warned that if every party again puts forward its own candidate, the election could end in deadlock, as happened when the electoral college failed and Kersti Kaljulaid was found in a hurry.
So far, only EKRE candidate Mart Helme has been meeting with voters. Saarts says parties are delaying this time because they do not want to name people closely tied to parties. The coalition, including the Reform Party, realises it lacks enough support to field its own candidate and is looking for a compromise figure. The opposition, meanwhile, appears not to have a strong candidate around whom it can unite.
Saarts also noted that parties do not want to take big risks ahead of parliamentary elections, as the outcome could bring either success or failure. In 2006, after the parliament vote failed, Arnold Rüütel and Toomas Hendrik Ilves ran large campaigns before the electoral college meeting, and this affected the next parliamentary elections. Ilves was elected by only one vote more than required, and in 2007 the Reform Party and Centre Party ended up very close, with Reform winning.
The result in the Riigikogu depends heavily on Isamaa's strategy, according to Saarts. If Isamaa wants to demonstrate the weakness of the coalition and the Social Democrats, the vote will go to the electoral college. That does not mean the party will refuse to support the candidate it was prepared to back in parliament.
In 2021, the presidential election ended in the Riigikogu even though many expected the electoral college to decide. The Reform Party and Centre Party agreed to cooperate, and Alar Karis was elected in the second round.
