Experts: Ukraine's Defeat Would Threaten the Security of Europe and the Baltics

Political scientist Andis Kudors and Jānis Sārts, director of the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence, have outlined what a Ukrainian defeat in the war with Russia would mean for Latvia and the rest of Europe. The question arose after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, asked about a possible loss, said Ukraine is not losing the war, but that its losses mean the loss of people and time, as well as enormous casualties.

Tension along the borders

Kudors believes that if Ukraine were defeated, tension would rise along the borders of Latvia and Russia. In his view, Russia would deploy ever more military forces, while propaganda would urge friendship with Russia, for example by buying natural gas. A binary choice would be presented: either trade, or war.

He also says a Russian victory would strengthen the alliance of authoritarian states – Russia, China and Iran – and embolden leaders with regional ambitions, including China over Taiwan. For Ukraine it would mean the end of the state and total Russification, and Belarus's own existence would then be called into question. Still, Kudors does not believe Ukraine can lose, saying it has proven to be such a hard nut to crack that the Russians are breaking their teeth. He also criticises statements by US President Donald Trump, which he sees as taking Russia's side.

Humanitarian catastrophe and geopolitical threats

Sārts stresses that a defeat would sharply worsen Europe's security situation. If Russia managed to conquer Ukraine or parts of it, threats would grow for Georgia, Kazakhstan and the Baltic states. In occupied territories, he says, mass "filtration" camps and repression would begin, and a further 10–15 million Ukrainians would leave the country, causing a migration crisis in the European Union.

The role of European support

Sārts is sceptical that the current negotiations will change anything. He notes that the US no longer pays for Ukraine's defence, but shares intelligence, offers access to Starlink for a fee and sells equipment that Europeans buy. In his view, Ukraine can still defend itself, and the situation would change fundamentally only if Europe stopped providing weapons and funding.