Experts Predict Three Scenarios for VPNs in Russia: From Stalemate to Total Isolation
Four experts outline possible futures for VPN services in Russia, from a relatively stable current state to severe crackdowns with criminal penalties. The most likely outcome, they say, is somewhere in between.
Russian authorities are intensifying their battle against VPN services, making life harder for both providers and users. Meduza asked four experts to sketch three likely futures.
Technological Pressure
Roskomnadzor has steadily improved its blocking methods. In November 2025, it learned to identify VPNs using the Xray/VLESS protocol. By May 2026, it deployed these mechanisms more broadly, even temporarily blocking entire “suspicious” subnets. In June 2026, major VPN Amnezia faced DDoS attacks its developers attribute to the agency. A new attack followed on July 7.
Economic and Legal Levers
In April, mobile carriers stopped allowing Apple ID top-ups via phone accounts, complicating VPN payments. Weeks later, dozens of major Russian internet services blocked access for VPN users. Minister Maksut Shadayev admitted he was tasked with “reducing VPN use” but opposes the harshest measures.
Three Scenarios
Best scenario – the current situation freezes: circumvention works, no penalties. Experts say this may already be reality.
Middle scenario – economic pressure, price hikes, minor fines.
Worst scenario – criminal liability for VPN use, “white lists,” even labeling VPNs as extremist organizations.
Alexander Amzin believes the most realistic outcome is a mix of middle and bad, but harsh steps may be delayed until after the elections. David Frenkel says the worst-case would require a political decision for near-total internet isolation. Maria Kolomychenko warns that VPNs could be declared “extremist,” making payments a criminal offense.
Experts agree the future depends on political stability. If the government feels threatened, any radical measure becomes possible.
