Expert: Hopes for Russia's readiness for peace are wishful thinking

Stefan Sheremeta, an economist at Case Western Reserve University in the US, argues that current hopes for Russia's genuine desire for peace are wishful thinking. He notes that while Russia is not gaining significant ground on the battlefield, its economy faces difficulties, and Ukraine is disrupting Russian oil production, the key deterrent for Russia is the Western response. Unfortunately, that response is not visible.

Sheremeta points out that previously, each time Russia escalated or became more brutal in Ukraine, the West responded by increasing aid to Ukraine. However, now, during the most intense missile attacks on Kyiv, Odesa, and Dnipro, which have caused the highest civilian casualties since the full-scale invasion began, the West has not provided maximum support. Moreover, the US has completely withdrawn its support.

When Russia sees this Western weakness, it simply plays a waiting game, according to the professor. He also dismisses claims that time is not on Russia's side, arguing it is not on Ukraine's side either. In Ukraine, streets are empty as people are mobilized, hiding, or have left the country. Sheremeta is convinced that Putin and the Kremlin believe they have more resources to outlast Ukraine and, crucially, the West.

Therefore, the professor does not believe real negotiations are imminent. To achieve that, the narrative must change, first from the US side, and also from major European powers like France, Germany, and Italy. He also expressed concern about a possible US withdrawal from NATO, based on his long study of Trump's politics. Trump's "America First" narrative indicates the US does not want to be involved in European conflicts. Sheremeta hopes that figures like Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a strong NATO supporter, will push back, but acknowledges that Trump is very independent and will do what he wants.