Expert: New mobilization in Russia could threaten Putin himself
A British military analyst warns that a broad mobilization after Russia's September elections could reach wealthy Moscow and St Petersburg families for the first time, echoing the Soviet war in Afghanistan. This could weaken Putin's regime rather than strengthen it.
British military expert Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, writing in The Telegraph, warns that a new general mobilization in Russia could pose a threat not only to Ukraine but to the Kremlin itself. After Russia's elections expected in September, Vladimir Putin could order the call-up of 300,000 or more additional people.
Echoes of Afghanistan
The expert draws parallels with the Soviet war in Afghanistan, when the bodies of fallen soldiers were sent home in zinc coffins, sparking protests by soldiers' mothers and broad public debate later documented in Svetlana Alexievich's book "Zinky Boys".
Why there has been no mass uprising so far
Ukraine estimates Russia has suffered around 1.5 million casualties, killed and wounded, since the full-scale invasion began, yet no uprising on a scale matching such losses has occurred. According to the expert, this is largely because those sent to fight have mainly been prisoners, mercenaries, members of ethnic minorities and residents of Russia's poorer regions, while sons of wealthy families in Moscow and St Petersburg have largely been shielded from the front.
The expert describes the Russian army as a "meat grinder," pointing to poor supplies, corrupt and unjust discipline, and soldiers turning to alcohol and drugs to cope, with some even deliberately injuring themselves to avoid being sent to the front.
Possible impact on the middle class
If a mobilization were announced, it could for the first time seriously affect the urban middle class, including families in Moscow and St Petersburg. This segment of society has money, influence and access to foreign information, meaning it is here that Putin could face his most serious problems.
The expert also notes that even 300,000 additional soldiers would not be enough for victory — a trained force, competent officers and time to prepare are needed, yet Russia's training system is already overstretched. In his view, mobilization could produce a new generation of Russian mothers demanding their sons' return, ultimately weakening rather than strengthening Putin's regime.
