Expert: Russia Tests NATO Borders, Not Seeking War with Alliance

In an interview with Delfi, US security expert Kevin Ryle, specializing in Russian intelligence and covert operations, analyzed Russia's actions near NATO borders. He argues that current sabotage and provocations—including drone flights over Poland and airspace violations in Estonia—are deliberate reconnaissance to test the alliance's reaction, not direct preparation for war.

Ryle notes that Russia aims to provoke a military response from NATO, allowing Moscow to portray itself as a victim. However, he emphasizes that Russia does not seek a full-scale war with NATO but rather seeks to create fear and division within the alliance. As an example, he cites Russian attempts to weaken the EU and NATO by exploiting existing disagreements among member states.

The expert adds that Russian influence campaigns, such as disinformation or election interference, have often been unsuccessful. He references the failed 2016 coup attempt in Montenegro and the pro-European choice in Hungary. However, trends in Slovakia and Bulgaria partially align with Russian interests.

Regarding sabotage operations, Ryle notes that current actions are relatively small-scale and aimed at reducing support for Ukraine, not strategic escalation. He does not rule out that Russia has plans for larger attacks, but they would likely be implemented only in a full-scale war scenario, which is currently unlikely.

Ryle also comments on nuclear threats, saying Russia uses them as a deterrent, but this bluff may be tested. Overall, he believes Russia has created a problem for itself by awakening Europe's military potential, which will strengthen deterrence in the long term.