Enefit: Winter Electricity Prices to Depend on Wind Output and Gas Prices
Energy company Enefit says electricity prices in the Baltics this winter will largely depend on wind power generation and natural gas prices. In October the average price in Latvia was 0.113 euros per kilowatt-hour.
Electricity prices in Latvia and the rest of the Baltic states during the winter months will depend mainly on wind power output and natural gas prices, energy company Enefit told the news agency LETA while reviewing October market data. This matters for households and businesses, as consumption rises during the heating season.
October results
In October natural gas prices rose sharply, and water levels in Nordic hydropower reservoirs stayed low. Even so, strong wind generation in the Baltics helped limit the increase in electricity prices, which was relatively small in Latvia. The average price in Latvia reached 0.113 euros per kilowatt-hour, 4% more than in September and 7% more than a year earlier. In Lithuania the price was 0.114 euros, while in Estonia it was lower at 0.082 euros per kilowatt-hour.
Wind farm output in the Baltics was about 724 gigawatt-hours, 11% more than in September and 50% more than a year ago. New capacity contributed: Enefit's Kelme II wind farm in Lithuania (87 megawatts) and Latvenergo's Laflora wind farm in Latvia (108 megawatts). Wind and solar together covered 40% of Baltic consumption, versus 28% a year earlier. In Latvia, domestic generation met 73% of consumption, and net imports fell from 44% to 27%.
On days when Baltic wind output exceeded 30 gigawatt-hours, the average price in Latvia was 0.052 euros per kilowatt-hour; on days with output below 15 gigawatt-hours, it averaged 0.161 euros.
Outlook for winter
Romāns Tjurins, head of portfolio management and market research at Enefit, says that as the heating season continues, consumption will rise while solar output keeps falling. During low-wind periods the Baltics will need more imports and will more often rely on costlier fossil-fuel capacity.
The TTF exchange natural gas price averaged 86.6 euros per megawatt-hour in October, 15% more than in September and about 2.7 times higher than a year earlier. By month's end it approached 100 euros, the highest level since December 2022. Gas storage levels in the European Union were unusually low.
Tjurins forecasts that a cold, windless spell, combined with high gas prices and limited hydropower in the Nordic countries, could cause a sharper rise in prices, while a windy and mild winter would help contain it.
