Erkki Koort: The Kremlin Wasted Its Window of Opportunity; Now It Has Opened for Ukraine

The article by Erkki Koort, a security expert from Postimees and the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences, analyzes the shifting dynamics in the Ukraine war. When Donald Trump became US president and promised to end the war, Russia initially saw a golden opportunity. Trump focused on pressuring Kyiv, and Moscow hoped to benefit from the US-Iran conflict to secure gains on the battlefield.

However, Russia failed to capitalize. It intensified military pressure but achieved no decisive breakthroughs. Meanwhile, Ukraine played along with the pretense of peace talks while boosting its own confidence. A key moment was President Zelenskyy's letter to Putin on May 9, which seized the initiative. Russia's response was hesitant, and its position weakened.

Europe also stepped up. Germany, France, and the UK launched an initiative that is effectively support for Ukraine, not neutral mediation. Discussions about reforming the European External Action Service have emerged.

Russian state media now claim that Trump tried but failed to achieve peace, blaming Ukraine and Europe. Moscow missed its moment; Ukraine's confidence has grown, and a window of opportunity has opened for Kyiv.