French Analyst: Russian Losses Near Dobropillia Have Surged

The number of Russian soldiers lost on the front line of the Russia-Ukraine war has risen markedly in recent weeks, according to official Ukrainian figures. On some days the reported total has reached as many as 2,000 troops. French OSINT (open-source intelligence) analyst Clément Molin drew attention to the trend on 22 October, saying the main reason is likely an intensification of Russian attacks toward Dobropillia in the Donetsk region.

What the data shows

Molin acknowledges that Ukraine's official figures on enemy losses should not be treated as fully accurate, but argues that the overall trends matter most. He notes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff's statistics for 2022–2024 were close to the estimates of the independent outlet Mediazona when a ratio of killed to wounded soldiers is applied. In his view, this suggests the numbers are at least partly accurate.

The analyst also pointed to data released by Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces. According to those figures, Ukrainian drones hit 11,800 Russian soldiers in October alone. That is more than in the whole of August, even though only 22 days of October had passed when the data was published. Both the Unmanned Systems Forces and the General Staff numbers corroborate the increase.

A possible explanation

Molin ties the rise to Russian efforts to capture Dobropillia. He says Russian commanders send hundreds of soldiers there every day and are drawing on reserves from four armies, trying to advance before winter sets in. In his assessment, Russia is trying at any cost to shift fighting in this sector into the built-up area of the town, despite record-high losses.

The analyst estimates that Russian casualties in the Dobropillia direction could even exceed those seen in the 2023 battles for Bakhmut.