FT: Russia Unlikely to Return to Substantive Talks Before February 2027

According to informed sources of the Financial Times, Russia is unlikely to participate in any substantive peace negotiations until February 2027. A person in Moscow involved in backchannel talks to end the war told the publication that Russia's focus on Putin's maximalist goals means Moscow is unlikely to engage in substantive talks until next February.

A Russian interlocutor told the newspaper that the most desirable scenario for Russians is that the Americans "hand over" Ukraine to them. Another source from Russia added: "They don't even hint at any concessions. They keep repeating the same goals... Their negotiating positions essentially mean there is nothing to negotiate."

Meanwhile, high-ranking Ukrainian officials involved in peace talks informed journalists that Russian negotiators have told the US side that it must secure Kyiv's agreement to significant concessions. These officials also noted that trilateral peace talks mediated by the US are unlikely to resume before after the summer.

Despite a slowdown in the ground offensive, Putin has ordered his troops to capture the remaining part of Donetsk region by the end of the year, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This assessment is based on Ukrainian intelligence data seen by the FT and two individuals who communicate with the Russian president.

As reported, after the war with Iran, potential trilateral talks in the Ukraine-US-Russia format fell through and were postponed. The Ukrainian president acknowledged that the US is currently focused on negotiations with Iran, shifting attention away from Ukraine.

On June 15, Zelenskyy said he had proposed meeting Putin at the G7 summit in France to discuss ending the war, but Russia was not ready to talk. On June 4, the Ukrainian president sent a letter to Putin proposing a personal bilateral meeting to end the war, adding that Europe and the US should be involved. US President Donald Trump supported the possibility of a bilateral meeting, while Putin stated he had read the letter but "does not see the point" in holding a meeting.