Rapid Houthi advance in Yemen threatens to open dangerous new front in Iran conflict
A swift Houthi territorial push in Yemen, including seizure of strategic Red Sea islands, has strengthened Iran's grip on two of the world's key maritime chokepoints. Analysts warn this could endanger shipping and heighten tensions with Saudi Arabia and the US.
A rapid territorial advance by Houthi forces in Yemen is raising fears of a dangerous new dimension to the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. Experts say the Houthis appear to have taken control of several key Red Sea islands, including Perim, which sits at the narrowest point of the Bab al-Mandab strait.
The Houthis have long relied on Iranian backing, support that has grown more important as other members of Tehran's regional network — Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas in Gaza, and the former Assad government in Syria — have suffered major setbacks. Analysts estimate that Iran, directly or through allied groups, now exerts influence over two of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab, through which more than 35% of global oil and fuel trade passes.
Shipping under threat
Past rounds of conflict showed that vessels transiting the Red Sea remain highly exposed to Houthi missiles, drones and small attack boats. Although the Houthi military said on Friday that navigation was safe for all shipping except Saudi-linked vessels already under blockade, shipping companies remain wary of such assurances — earlier campaigns saw attacks on ships with no Israeli connection, including a Norwegian-flagged tanker.
Yemen specialists suggest the group may still avoid indiscriminate attacks, mindful of the six-week US air and naval campaign it faced in spring 2025.
Saudi concerns and US hesitation
Satellite imagery suggests a Houthi missile-and-drone strike on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, a critical export route since the Strait of Hormuz was closed earlier this year. Appeals from the Saudi Crown Prince for direct US intervention have so far gone unanswered, as Washington seeks to boost support for Riyadh while avoiding direct military involvement.
Analysts trace the latest escalation, the worst since a UN-brokered truce in 2022, to a Houthi delegation's return in July from the state funeral of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. As Saudi Arabia worries about protecting its Red Sea trade lifeline and President Trump appears reluctant to intervene, the people of Yemen, already battered by more than a decade of civil war, face the prospect of further hardship.
