Estonia: Dismissal of defence ministry chancellor could set dangerous precedent, experts warn

Estonia's outgoing defence minister Hanno Pevkur (Reform Party) has said that dismissing defence ministry chancellor Kaimo Kuusk serves state security interests, citing the approaching parliamentary elections and possible Russian attempts to use "soft power".

According to Pevkur, the next eight months are critical, as Estonia, Sweden, Finland, Latvia and Poland are all preparing for domestic elections, and Russia will try to sow division within these societies. He argued the ministry must function without internal conflict between the minister and chancellor, since only coordinated leadership can safeguard Estonia's security interests during this period.

Experts warn of a precedent

Marika Priske, who served for years as chancellor at the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications (2002-2014) and later at the Ministry of Social Affairs (2014-2021), believes Kuusk's dismissal in the current situation could become a dangerous precedent. She expressed hope that today's events would not turn into standard practice, noting that in Estonia, once such a scheme works, subsequent governments tend to adopt it as well. Priske said she hopes an impartial, experienced person will take the post and help Estonia move past the current crisis.

Likely new minister stresses security threats

Martin Herem, considered the leading candidate for defence minister, declined to disclose details of the alleged conflict with the former chancellor. He said a more pressing question is how realistically Estonia assesses the threat from Russia and whether the country is prepared for a possible shift in the security situation. In an interview with ERR, Herem noted that within a year Russia could use military force of an unknown scale against Estonia, and that before this happens, Estonia needs to determine whether its preparations are sufficient to neutralize such a threat.

The incoming minister will also have to deal with the scandal surrounding ammunition procurement, which is now being investigated by the European Public Prosecutor's Office. Prosecutor General Astrid Asi explained that crimes threatening European Union funds fall under the competence of the European Prosecutor's Office, and that Estonia's State Prosecutor's Office has no authority to intervene in that decision.