Estonian defense official: Russia is stepping up strikes on civilian infrastructure

Gert Kaju, director of the Defense Readiness Department at Estonia's Ministry of Defense, said on Friday that Russia is intensifying long-range strikes on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine as the front lines remain largely unchanged. In his assessment, Moscow is trying to make up for its lack of success on the battlefield, which means civilians stay at risk even without major territorial shifts.

Talks unlikely to bring a breakthrough

Ukraine and Russia are both preparing for negotiations in Abu Dhabi, but Kaju said statements from both sides give little reason to expect substantial progress. He does not think the U.S. midterm elections will change this. On Tuesday, the Democratic Party won both the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives. Kaju suggested Washington may press both sides to make concessions and show at least some progress, but neither appears ready to do so.

Situation at the front

Russian forces have made little headway and fighting along the front has largely stabilized. Over the past week there have been around 200 clashes a day, with Russian losses of about 2,000 daily. On one day last week they were estimated at more than 2,500. Kaju put weekly losses at around 15,000. He attributed this in part to Ukraine's use of medium-range unmanned systems, which let it strike deeper into occupied territory and disrupt combat preparations. Russia's main offensive efforts remain on the Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka directions, with attacks also continuing toward Huliaipole. A recent ceasefire in Oleshky has ended, and hostilities have resumed in the Kherson region.

Strikes on a school and hospitals

Kaju cited a November 2 Russian airstrike on a school in Zaporizhzhia Oblast where humanitarian aid was being handed out. It killed 42 people and left 33 missing. A 1,000-kilogram aerial bomb was used, and nine more bombs were then dropped on a shelter nearby, killing and injuring people, including rescuers. The next day, general hospitals in Kharkiv and Dnipro were bombed, and dozens of people were injured.

Russia is also targeting energy infrastructure ahead of winter, though so far with no significant effect, Kaju said. He expects Ukraine to retaliate against Russian energy facilities and considers the coming winter important for both sides.