Retired Estonian commodore: Russian ships in the Gulf of Finland are no longer safe

Retired Estonian navy commodore Jüri Saska said in an interview with the Estonian public broadcaster's programme "Ringvaade" on Friday that Ukraine's recent drone strikes on a Russian warship show that Russian vessels are not safe in the Gulf of Finland either. In his view, this forces Russia to protect its shadow fleet, the tankers used to carry its oil, and makes the situation in the region increasingly unpredictable.

In the early hours of Wednesday, reports emerged of drone strikes in the Gulf of Finland area, followed by news that the Russian vessel Naro-Fominsk had been hit. Saska said there was initial doubt over whether an accident aboard the ship was to blame, but it was later confirmed that a Ukrainian drone struck it. He sees this as a new level of drone warfare: the ability to hit moving targets at long range, redirect drones in real time and attack repeatedly. He could not say exactly which direction the drone came from, but said it most likely came from the south. Whether it crossed Estonian airspace or waters is a question for the specialists watching the surveillance screens. The ship was in the northern part of the Gulf of Finland, closer to Finnish than Estonian waters.

What kind of ship it is

According to Saska, the Naro-Fominsk is a relatively small vessel built as a Kalibr missile carrier. Such ships appeared after 2014, when Western sanctions meant Russia could no longer obtain large diesel engines for big ships, so long-range weapons began to be fitted to smaller platforms. The air defence of these first-generation ships is limited, while the modernised versions are considerably better.

Growing Russian presence

Saska said Russia's naval presence in the Gulf of Finland has grown since he left the navy in 2024, and that there have never been so many Russian warships there. He linked this to the detention of shadow fleet vessels by Estonian, Finnish and NATO units. Russia's message, in his words, is: "These are our shadow ships, so don't poke them." Russia is already using countermeasures such as nets, moving ships and repainting them, but there is no guaranteed solution.

On the risk of escalation, he recalled 1939, when after the Polish submarine Orzeł was detained in Tallinn, Russia claimed it had sunk the ship Metallist and used this to argue for bases in Estonia. Saska did not rule out strange twists in Russian reasoning. He stressed that as long as the war in Ukraine continues and Russia depends on its oil shipments, things will not get easier on either shore of the Gulf of Finland.