Two Months Out, No Clear Favorite Emerges in Estonian Presidential Election

Two months remain until Estonia's presidential election, but there is still no clear favorite. After President Alar Karis decided not to seek a second term, politicians and public figures have been actively searching for candidates.

One potential candidate is Chancellor of Justice Ülle Madise. The Social Democrats proposed her, with liberal parties Eesti 200 and the Reform Party backing the idea. However, Madise has not yet announced her candidacy. Political communication expert Annika Arras noted that Madise has not given a firm "no," suggesting possible interest, but questioned whether the country wants a president who needs to be coaxed.

Another name is Foreign Ministry Chancellor Jonathan Vseviov. His strength lies in shaping Estonia's foreign policy in recent years, but political scientist Tõnis Leht noted this could also be a downside: if Vseviov becomes president, it may be unclear whether foreign policy will be set by the ministry or the presidential office. Vseviov lacks a party label, making it easier for different parties to support him, though some in the opposition may have reservations.

A group of public figures has proposed former Kaitseliit head Riho Ühtegi. Experts say his conservative stance would attract conservative parties but repel liberals. If Isamaa or the Centre Party openly backs Ühtegi, it may signal they do not expect to elect a president in parliament. Liberal parties are unlikely to support him if candidates like Madise or Vseviov are also running.

To nominate a candidate in parliament, support from 21 MPs is needed; election requires 68 votes. The EKRE party has said it will only vote for its own candidate, former party chair Mart Helme.

At a meeting on Saturday, the Reform Party board promised to support Ülle Madise if she agrees to run, but is also considering other options, including high-ranking EU official Maive Rute.