Estonia's Reform Party loses several prominent figures ahead of Riigikogu elections
After Andres Sutt, Liina Kersna, Maris Lauri and Hanno Pevkur decided to leave politics, Estonia's Reform Party will struggle to replace such well-known candidates, political analyst Tarmo Jüristo says. Parliamentary elections are due in March next year.
Estonia's Reform Party has lost several prominent figures ahead of the next parliamentary (Riigikogu) elections, raising questions about its electoral prospects. The vote is scheduled for March next year. Political analyst Tarmo Jüristo says replacing these people will be a major challenge.
Who is leaving politics
In September, Andres Sutt, who has served as both minister of entrepreneurship and information technology and minister of energy and industry, announced his retirement from politics. Over the past two weeks, three more senior party figures have said they will not run: former Education Minister Liina Kersna; Maris Lauri, who has been finance, justice and education minister; and longtime Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur. Pevkur left the defense ministry in September and on Wednesday said he would quit politics altogether.
Votes at stake
Jüristo notes that all four attracted significant numbers of votes at the previous elections. Pevkur won around 6,500 votes, the sixth-highest among Reform candidates; Kersna and Lauri each won about 4,000, and Sutt 3,300. For comparison, Isamaa chairman Urmas Reinsalu received just under 4,500.
The analyst says the party is counting on brand recognition, and polls suggest its remaining supporters are fairly loyal and may shift their votes to other names on its lists. Still, individual candidates can strongly influence results. Because all four were recognizable ministers, Jüristo says he cannot see the departures as good news for the campaign, though he could not estimate how many seats may be lost.
The importance of Martin Herem
According to Jüristo, it is now critical for the party to persuade former Defense Forces commander Martin Herem to run. It needs a strong candidate with a national security background, especially as the Social Democrats now have former Foreign Ministry Secretary General Jonatan Vseviov. Herem could fill the gap left by Pevkur in government, but would be of little help to the campaign unless he appears on the party's candidate list.
Why now
Jüristo links the timing to the approaching deadline for finalizing candidate lists, which forces parties and potential candidates to decide. He dismissed the suggestion that Pevkur's departure stemmed from a dispute over his list position or electoral district.
