Iraq's paramilitary groups say they will disarm. Will that ever happen?
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi pledged to bring weapons under state control, but many Iran-backed militias resist. Economic pressure and US demands are driving the process, yet implementation remains uncertain.
In his first speech to parliament in mid-May, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi promised to reform the security apparatus by restricting weapons to state control. This is not a new pledge – paramilitary groups, many backed by Iran, have held significant power since the 2003 US-led war. However, the current context is different: the US-Israel war on Iran has increased Washington's pressure on Iraq to disarm these groups, while the country's oil revenues have plummeted. Before the regional war began in late February, Iraq exported about 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd), mostly via the Strait of Hormuz. By March, exports dropped to around 600,000 bpd, and oil accounts for over 90% of the state budget. Political analyst Mujashaa Altimimi told Al Jazeera that addressing this issue has become an economic necessity.
One of Iraq's most influential Shia leaders, Muqtada al-Sadr, moved quickly to support al-Zaidi. On May 27, he announced that his Saraya al-Salam group would separate from his political movement and integrate into the state's armed forces. He called on other paramilitary groups, especially those affiliated with the Iran-backed Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), to follow suit. Some groups, such as Asaib Ahl al-Haq, pledged to comply. PMF chief Faleh al-Fayyad also promised a "complete disengagement" from politics, aiming to make the PMF a state institution. But powerful factions like Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba rejected the call.
Analysts warn that the path ahead is unclear. An anonymous Shia figure said that groups refusing to comply would be sidelined, but a lengthy integration process is better than confrontation. Questions remain: will groups that built up military power over years hand over their weapons? What will they demand in return? Al-Sadr's move may be a strategic repositioning – he previously "retired" from politics in 2022 but rebranded his movement, indicating potential return. One proposal under discussion is creating a new security ministry merging the PMF and Kurdish Peshmerga. Political analyst Hani Ashour cautioned against optimism, saying it's better to wait and see.
