Isamaa leader Reinsalu: major policy change possible only after 2027 elections

Isamaa chair Urmas Reinsalu has said that meaningful changes to Estonia's state policy can only be expected after the next Riigikogu elections in 2027. He criticized the current government's management of public finances, naming the restoration of economic growth as his party's central priority.

Reinsalu argued the government has failed to deliver on its promises, pointing out that while teachers, police officers and rescue workers are set to receive only a three percent pay rise, salaries for central administration staff at the Climate Ministry will rise by 16 percent next year. Asked how large a minimum salary increase teachers would get under an Isamaa-led government, he gave no concrete figure, but stressed that dialogue with educators, which has broken down, needs to be rebuilt.

He also warned of an approaching fuel price shock tied to the EU's ETS 2 emissions trading scheme taking effect from 2028 and a planned double excise duty increase built into the 2027 budget. In his view, the excise duty on fuel should be temporarily cut to the minimum level to soften the blow.

On taxation, Reinsalu criticized the ruling Reform Party's approach, saying recent tax hikes have suppressed economic activity and, as a result, reduced tax revenue. He described the government's forecast of roughly two percent economic growth over the next four years as insufficiently ambitious, arguing the real potential is five percent. Faster growth, he said, could shrink the budget deficit from four percent to 2.5 percent.

Reinsalu also addressed the debate over high defense spending, saying support for other sectors must be sustained long-term and that the defense industry should be backed more strongly so defense spending can become a source of revenue rather than purely a cost.

He acknowledged the coalition's proposed budget will likely pass, since the government appears to have reached some understanding with the Social Democrats, though he said the budget will need correcting. Reinsalu added that Prime Minister Kristen Michal faces an upcoming no-confidence vote over his government's political decisions.