Iceland set for razor-thin EU referendum, with fishing rights at the heart of the debate
Icelanders vote Saturday on whether to resume EU membership talks, in a referendum polls suggest is too close to call, with control over fishing waters the central point of contention.
Iceland goes to the polls on Saturday in a referendum that will decide whether the nation of almost 400,000 people should resume negotiations to join the European Union. Recent polling shows the Yes and No camps running neck and neck, making the outcome hard to predict.
Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir's centre-left government, formed after a snap election win in 2024, pledged to hold the vote by 2027. That timeline was pushed forward by fast-moving geopolitical events, including Russia's war in Ukraine, growing rivalry in the Arctic, and US President Donald Trump's tariff threats and stated interest in Greenland. Iceland sits near the strategic GIUK gap, a stretch of ocean closely monitored for Russian naval activity. It is a founding Nato member but has no armed forces of its own, relying on the alliance and a 1951 defence agreement with the United States for security.
Supporters of joining, including Finance Minister Daði Már Kristófersson, argue EU membership would bolster Iceland's security and trade standing while helping tame high inflation and currency volatility, potentially through adopting the euro. Iceland is among the world's most expensive countries, with prices running 84% above the EU average and interest rates at 8%.
Opponents, led by opposition leader Guðrún Hafsteinsdóttir, warn of losing sovereignty and control over fishing grounds. Fish and marine industries make up almost 40% of Iceland's exports, and many fear the EU's common fisheries policy would erode national control over Icelandic waters. The government hopes to negotiate special exemptions for fishing, though sceptics note no EU member state has ever secured a permanent opt-out.
Iceland previously opened EU accession talks in 2009 but abandoned them in 2013, largely over the fisheries issue. Officials say a Yes vote would allow talks to resume quickly, potentially taking months rather than years since 11 of 35 negotiating chapters were already settled. Neighbouring Norway, traditionally Eurosceptic, is also watching closely amid growing domestic support for EU membership there.
