Iceland's rejection chills EU's enlargement hopes
Icelandic voters rejected reopening EU accession talks in a referendum, disappointing Brussels which had hoped a more dangerous world would boost the bloc's appeal. The result raises questions about the EU's attractiveness even to wealthy, already well-integrated nations.
Iceland voted on Saturday against reopening negotiations to join the European Union, dealing an unexpected setback to Brussels' hopes that global instability would make the bloc more appealing. The margin was narrow, but the symbolism is significant: even a wealthy country already closely tied to the EU chose not to pursue full membership.
EU leadership had spent recent years wagering that Russia's war in Ukraine and the disruption caused by U.S. President Donald Trump — including threats regarding Greenland — would push more nations to seek shelter within the bloc. Iceland's renewed interest in membership had been seen as validation of that theory, but the referendum result undercut it.
Before the vote, EU enlargement chief Marta Kos said a favorable outcome would confirm the bloc's growing attractiveness in a changing world. Following the result, the European Commission's response was muted, saying it "takes note" and would remain a close partner to Iceland. A diplomat from a candidate country, however, described the outcome as a major blow to enlargement ambitions and the EU's broader image, noting that far-right and Euroskeptic figures across Europe quickly used the result to bolster their own arguments.
Icelandic voters' opposition centered on concerns over fishing rights, sovereignty and the economy, along with the fact that the country already enjoys most EU benefits through membership in the European Economic Area and Schengen. While security was expected to be a decisive argument in favor of joining, former Icelandic president Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson argued that Iceland's founding NATO membership and longstanding bilateral security pact with the U.S. made such fears an insufficient reason to give up sovereignty.
The outcome could also affect the momentum of other candidate countries — Moldova, Ukraine, Albania and especially Montenegro — with some diplomats predicting Brussels will now focus more heavily on advancing the bids of those already furthest along in the process.
