ISW: Russia upgrading drones to outpace Ukraine's air defenses
The US-based Institute for the Study of War reports that Russia is modernizing strike and reconnaissance drones to inflict maximum damage on Ukraine before its air defenses adapt to the new threats.
The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says in its latest report that Russian forces are actively upgrading their drone models to cause the greatest possible damage to Ukrainian infrastructure and frontline positions while Ukraine's air defenses have not yet developed effective countermeasures against the new technology.
Upgraded Geran-4
On October 5, Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate reported that Russia has improved the optical navigation system, compass, and warhead of its long-range Geran-4 strike drone. The changes make it easier for the drone to target and navigate autonomously in environments where electronic warfare countermeasures are used against it. Ukrainian intelligence also confirmed that the newest Geran versions carry a specialized shaped-charge warhead designed to destroy reinforced steel and concrete structures, including cable-stayed bridges.
New reconnaissance drone
On the same day, Ukraine's 8th Army Corps reported intercepting a new Russian reconnaissance drone, the Molniya-13, which is reportedly one and a half times larger than previous models and equipped with four engines.
ISW's assessment
Analysts believe Russia is trying to field new, more jam-resistant and more dangerous strike drone models before Ukraine can develop effective countermeasures. ISW states that these efforts aim to damage Ukraine's energy infrastructure and logistics this autumn in preparation for a broader winter strike campaign.
For its part, Ukraine is working on defensive measures, including plans to build automated towers equipped with large-caliber machine guns to shoot down drones. Military expert Pavlo Narozhniy noted that a turning point has been reached in the fight against Shahed-type drones, with interception effectiveness rising from 60 to 83 percent.
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has continued since February 24, 2022, while the war between the two countries has lasted since 2014, when Russia occupied Crimea and began fighting in the Donbas region.
