Peace is missing from the ballot in Israel's election campaign
Ahead of Israel's 27 October parliamentary election, the campaign has barely addressed peace with the Palestinians or the Gaza war, even though Arab parties could decide the outcome. Commentators point to the trauma of the 7 October attack and a rightward shift in public opinion.
Israel holds parliamentary elections (for the Knesset) on 27 October, yet the campaign has largely avoided the question of peace with the Palestinians and a two-state solution, according to POLITICO Europe columnist Jamie Dettmer. The issue matters because the chances of Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief who leads a center-right opposition bloc against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, may depend on Arab parties.
Arab votes and campaign themes
Israel's Arab citizens, who are Palestinian by heritage, make up around 20% of voters. Under complex coalition arithmetic, Arab parties could help decide who becomes prime minister. Even so, neither Arab nor Jewish politicians have discussed what the result would mean for relations with the Palestinians, or for U.S. President Donald Trump's vision of peace through prosperity.
The campaign has centered on Netanyahu's role before the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023, which killed more than 1,200 people. Eisenkot's bloc accuses the prime minister of ignoring warnings, while Netanyahu's campaign portrays Eisenkot as susceptible to the influence of Arab party leaders Mansour Abbas and Ahmad Tibi.
Explanations
Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert attributes the silence to the trauma of 7 October and a perceived rightward shift in public opinion. He notes that Netanyahu's Likud party is expected to fall from its current 32 seats to about 20. In Olmert's view, other parties fear losing support if they talk about negotiations. Israel Democracy Institute surveys recorded support as high as 93% for the initial strikes on Iran, and nearly 80% for continuing the war.
Sven Burgsdorff, a former EU representative to the West Bank, says the main opposition leaders (Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid and Avigdor Lieberman) do not question the army's conduct in Gaza and do not back Palestinian self-determination. Only Yair Golan of the Democrats and the alliance of Arab parties do.
Olmert suggests that if Eisenkot takes office he might meet Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, but political room would be very limited. Without real movement toward a two-state solution, Israel risks alienating more of its traditional allies in Europe and the U.S.
