New Yemen tensions could complicate the global energy crisis

A sudden military escalation in Yemen has shattered a fragile, informal four‑year truce, threatening to expand an ongoing geopolitical conflict into the Red Sea and sever one of the world’s most vital energy arteries.

Yemen’s internationally recognized government bombed the runway at Sanaa International Airport on Monday to prevent an Iranian aircraft from landing. In swift retaliation, Houthi rebels fired ballistic missiles towards southern Saudi Arabia, accusing Riyadh of being behind the attack and declaring the era of de‑escalation with Yemen’s larger neighbour officially over.

While the immediate violence centres on the airport dispute, analysts warn that the true danger lies in how this localised flare‑up could spill over into the Bab al‑Mandeb Strait if it expands. This 29‑kilometre bottleneck connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, and roughly 12 percent of global trade passes through it daily.

The Bab al‑Mandeb is a massive energy corridor. In 2024, oil trade flows through the strait averaged 4.0 million barrels per day. It serves as an essential route for moving crude oil, refined petroleum products, and liquefied natural gas towards European and North American markets.

The resurgence of violence comes at a precarious time for global trade. With Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz amid its ongoing war with the United States and Israel, the Bab al‑Mandeb has become a critical pressure point. If both straits were shut simultaneously, approximately 25 percent of the world’s total oil and gas supply would be blocked. Ships would be forced to reroute around the southern tip of Africa, adding 10 to 14 days to delivery schedules and sending shipping and insurance costs skyrocketing.

A closure of the Bab al‑Mandeb would also neutralise a major strategic advantage held by Saudi Arabia. Unlike its Gulf neighbours, whose energy exports are largely trapped by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has circumvented the blockade using its East‑West Pipeline, which links eastern oil facilities to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. However, exporting from Yanbu relies entirely on the Bab al‑Mandeb remaining open. If Houthi forces lock down the Red Sea chokepoint, Saudi Arabia’s successful bypass would be rendered useless.