July weather in Estonia: floods, waterspouts and giant hailstones
A series of low pressure systems has brought heavy rain, storms and waterspouts, causing localized flooding. Experts say a warming climate could make such events more intense.
Over the past few days, Estonia has been hit by several low pressure systems that have brought a month's worth of rain in some places, strong winds, thunderstorms, unusually large hailstones and even waterspouts. While these phenomena are often localized, their intensity is notable.
On the evening of July 3, hailstones up to 4.5 cm in diameter fell in Keila, southwest of Tallinn. Two nights later, nearly 95 mm of rain was recorded within six hours in eastern Muhu island, with unconfirmed data suggesting over 100 mm in 24 hours—roughly the national average for July. This caused localized flooding, and funnel clouds and waterspouts have been observed in several parts of the country, including Lake Peipus.
Piia Post, professor of climate science at the University of Tartu, noted that Estonian summers are often changeable, and similarly wet periods were common from the late 1970s to the 1990s. She explained that a warming climate accelerates the water cycle, bringing more moisture into the air and leading to more intense rainfall. However, it can also cause droughts, as higher temperatures increase evaporation.
Külli Loodla, senior specialist at the Environment Agency, emphasized that summer showers in Estonia are highly localized. The cooling effect of the Baltic Sea reduces strong convective storms near the coast, while higher terrain inland, especially in the south, receives more precipitation. "In one place, tens of millimeters may fall within an hour, while just a few kilometers away it may not rain at all," she said.
Changing weather patterns are affecting agriculture: milder winters and varying precipitation favor winter cereals, while traditional haymaking is being replaced by silage production. In cities, flood risks are heightened by asphalt surfaces and planning issues, as water does not recognize property boundaries.
Chief meteorologist Taimi Paljak forecasts that the rest of July will remain unsettled, with a brief warm-up to 25°C and a drop back to around 20°C in the second half. August is expected to be warmer than average, possibly with a two-week hot dry spell. The European heatwave did not reach Estonia, as the high-pressure system broke down before arriving.
For the next 24 hours, a nationwide heavy rain warning is in place, with temperatures reaching only 17°C on Wednesday. Gradual warming is expected toward the weekend, but rain and thunderstorms will continue.
