Conflicts and extreme weather squeeze global food security
Wars affecting Iran and Ukraine, along with a forecast super El Niño, are disrupting global food supply chains and pushing up prices. An expert says the core problem is not a lack of food but broken transport routes.
Global food security is coming under growing pressure from a combination of armed conflicts and extreme weather events, according to an assessment aired on France 24. Experts are forecasting a so-called "super El Niño" that could seriously disrupt planting and harvests in multiple regions, potentially pushing millions more people into acute food insecurity.
At the same time, ongoing conflicts involving Iran and Ukraine continue to disrupt global shipping routes and supply chains.
Transport, not scarcity, is the issue
Shawn Arita, an Associate Research Professor at North Dakota State University, argues that the main problem right now is not a shortage of food or raw materials themselves, but the breakdown in how they move around the world. He states that both food and its underlying availability exist — what is broken is the movement.
Arita highlights the Strait of Hormuz as what he calls a "fertilizer corridor," describing it as crucial for farmers worldwide. Before 2026, roughly a third of globally exported fertilizers passed through Hormuz. Disruptions along this route are now being felt directly through supply-side and yield-side pressures, driving up cereal and grain prices and adding strain throughout the entire food system for major producing countries.
High costs are eating into output
Arita also warns that elevated fertilizer and energy prices will continue to weigh on agricultural production. When farmers' profit margins turn weak or even negative — a situation currently affecting producers in the US and elsewhere — the result is reduced output, which ultimately translates into lower food production on a global scale.
