Latvia Has Lagged Behind Renewable Energy Target Path Since 2022, Ministry Says

Latvia's share of renewable energy has been below the set annual target trajectory since 2022. Even so, the Ministry of Climate and Energy (KEM) believes the country will very likely reach its 2030 goal of a 61% renewable energy share. This follows from the annotation to a draft regulation on flexibility mechanisms for meeting renewable energy obligations, which has been posted on the legal acts portal for coordination.

What the draft regulation provides

The draft prepared by the ministry sets out how Latvia could use flexibility mechanisms to meet its obligations. These include buying or selling renewable energy statistics, taking part in the European Union's renewable energy financing mechanism, and carrying out joint projects with other EU member states or third countries.

Buying statistics would mean Latvia acquires another member state's surplus over its own target. If Latvia exceeded its target, it could sell its surplus to other countries and pay the proceeds into the state budget.

Why the shortfall has arisen

The ministry explains that the deviation is largely due to the fact that the transport energy emission intensity obligation for fuel suppliers applies only from 2030. If suppliers fulfil the duties set out in the Transport Energy Law, there will be no need to buy statistics from other states.

Possible costs

The annotation calculates two scenarios in case the target is missed:

• Comparing the effect of existing measures with that of all measures in the National Energy and Climate Plan, the gap would be about 2.56 million megawatt-hours (MWh), and buying it would cost €44.1–58.3 million.
• If the renewable share does not rise significantly by 2030, the gap between the 2024 volume and the 2030 target could reach 5.95 million MWh, with costs of €103.5–136.3 million.

The ministry notes that costs cannot be forecast precisely at present, as there is no public information on the price of a statistics unit. A decision on a purchase could be taken after 2030, with funding drawn from the "Contingency funds" budget programme.

As of early 2026, Latvia had made no transactions in renewable energy statistics and had not decided whether to join the EU financing mechanism.