Caught Between Kyiv's Ultimatums and Moscow's Financial Blackmail: Lukashenko Faces Mounting Pressure Over the War in Ukraine

Russia has stepped up pressure on Belarus this year to draw the country deeper into the war in Ukraine, according to The Wall Street Journal, citing current and former European and Russian officials. Moscow aims to use Belarusian territory for expanded drone strikes against Ukraine, divert Ukrainian forces from Donbas, and conduct operations against NATO countries bordering Belarus.

A former Russian intelligence officer told the WSJ that negotiations with Alexander Lukashenko are primarily conducted through Russia's ambassador to Belarus, Boris Gryzlov, leveraging financial support that Minsk depends on. While there are no signs of an immediate deeper involvement, the possibility remains, especially as Russia's advance in Donbas has slowed and Ukrainian strikes on its rear areas have caused a fuel crisis.

Since the full-scale war began, Russia has used Belarusian territory for attacks on Ukraine. In 2023, Lukashenko said he would enter the war if Ukraine attacked Belarus, but recently he twice promised not to be drawn further into the conflict. In a June 12 interview, Lukashenko acknowledged that Belarus is completely exposed to Ukrainian forces and its key infrastructure would be targeted.

On June 19, Volodymyr Zelensky escalated pressure by issuing an ultimatum: either Lukashenko removes relay stations that Ukraine claims are on Belarusian territory and used to guide Russian long-range drones like the Geran and Gerbera types, or Ukraine will do it itself. Ukraine has long alleged that antennas in Belarus are part of two-way video communication systems for Russian drones attacking Kyiv.

Experts are divided on whether Zelensky's ultimatum is serious. Former Ukrainian ambassador to Belarus Ihor Kyzym called it a "test of nerve," while Serhii Sydorenko of European Pravda believes Ukraine is genuinely prepared to strike Belarusian territory. Analyst Alexander Friedman noted that Minsk has taken de-escalation steps seen by Kyiv as weakness, prompting Ukraine to pressure Lukashenko.

The ultimatum alarmed Belarusian residents. Propagandists reacted aggressively, but the military took a conciliatory stance, reiterating non-involvement. Lukashenko has not yet commented on the relay stations but has announced a meeting with Vladimir Putin, where the Kremlin assured the ultimatum will be discussed.