What Can Business Expect From the 15th Saeima?
With just over a month left before Latvia's 15th Saeima election, polls point to a highly fragmented parliament, and an analyst warns that friendlier rhetoric toward business won't mean less state involvement in the economy.
With a little over a month remaining before Latvia's 15th Saeima election, an August SKDS poll converted into seats points to a highly fragmented parliament. The Union List (Apvienotais saraksts) is projected to win the most seats (around 29), followed by Sovereign Power (around 21), the Progressives (around 18), Latvia First (around 15), New Unity (around nine) and the National Alliance (around eight). Under this scenario, the Union of Greens and Farmers would fail to enter parliament. The author stresses this is a projection rather than a forecast, and that for businesses the more important question than who wins is whether economic growth becomes a consistent standard for judging policy decisions.
Promises versus reality
Four years ago, parties promised lower taxes, less bureaucracy and greater competitiveness. Today the picture is more mixed: the 2025 tax reform eased the burden for part of the workforce while increasing it for capital and higher incomes. Some progress has been made in cutting red tape, but a gap between political commitments and tangible results reportedly remains.
Coalition prospects
The author argues that Sovereign Power will be a red line for any realistic coalition partner, while Latvia First's participation in government, though mathematically possible, appears politically unlikely. As a result, the next government will most likely be built around the Union List and New Unity, possibly joined by the National Alliance or the Progressives.
What it means for business
Regardless of the coalition's composition, the state's presence in the economy is not expected to shrink. Current examples already include food price monitoring, reduced VAT on some staple goods, a reform of medicine pricing and markups, a solidarity contribution from banks, and a rapidly growing defence budget emphasizing local industry. Additional pressure will come from the implementation of EU regulations, including the AI Act and the platform work directive, as well as limited fiscal space that could lead to new sectoral fees or charges. The author concludes that businesses will increasingly need to back their positions with concrete data and frame their interests as aligning with the national interest, since general calls to reduce burdens will no longer be enough.
