Opinion: Putin, Trump, airBaltic and Rail Baltica share a common pattern

In an opinion piece, columnist Romāns Meļņiks identifies a shared pattern in both global politics and major Latvian projects: a reluctance to admit that an original plan has failed, coupled with a stubborn insistence on continuing it in hope of a miraculous turnaround.

As an example, the author points to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who, after failing to capture Kyiv within three days as initially planned, has continued the war despite signs pointing toward Russia's self-destruction as a result. A similar dynamic, the author argues, applies to US President Donald Trump regarding Iran — the expected surrender after bombing did not materialize, and negotiations have reached a deadlock.

In the Latvian context, the author cites airline airBaltic, whose management has for years pointed to external factors — the Covid-19 pandemic, the loss of eastern markets due to Russia's war against Ukraine, and rising fuel prices — as the main causes of its difficulties, without sufficiently adjusting its business approach or cutting loss-making routes. Last year's borrowing at unusually high interest rates is cited as further evidence of hoping for a miracle rather than facing reality. Change only came after pressure from the prime minister ahead of elections.

Rail Baltica plans

The author recalls that Rail Baltica was originally planned around the idea that transit cargo flows would offset construction costs, including through the planned Salaspils intermodal logistics centre. Since Russia shows no intention of ending its war against Ukraine and sanctions are likely to remain in place, cargo volumes remain minimal compared to original projections, yet construction continues — meaning costs will likely fall on passenger transport instead.

The author concludes that admitting mistakes is not defeat but an opportunity to choose a better path, urging that decisions be based on changing circumstances and facts rather than stubbornness.