Cormann warns copying populists won't ease cost of living

Australia's mainstream political parties should not adopt populist policies such as migration caps to answer voter anger over the cost of living, according to Mathias Cormann. He is secretary general of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and was previously Australia's longest-serving finance minister. He is due to deliver the message in an address to the Centre for Independent Studies on Saturday night.

Context: One Nation's rise

Cormann does not name One Nation in his address, but the party, which largely campaigns on an anti-immigration platform, has gained support since the 2025 federal election. The latest Guardian Essential poll puts its primary vote at 25%, ahead of the Coalition on 22%.

He is expected to acknowledge that populists have tapped real grievances: rising energy bills, home ownership slipping out of reach and incomes going backwards in real terms. But he will say mainstream parties that adopt populist economics do not win voters back. They "lose twice": first to the original, which voters will always prefer to the copy, and then to the centre.

Migration and tariffs

Cormann will criticise "arbitrary migration caps" imposed regardless of their effect on business, hospitals, aged care or universities. He will concede that more Australians than at any time in the past 20 years consider the migration intake too high, with many linking their concerns to housing. In his view, the answer lies in housing supply, infrastructure, services and the make-up of the intake.

OECD research across Australia's regions found that where more migrants arrived, employment among Australian-born workers grew faster, with no measurable effect on their wages. Without migration, the working-age population would shrink as the number of older people grows.

He will also argue that tariffs, which US President Donald Trump has imposed and One Nation has proposed, would not reduce living costs and could raise costs for farmers, miners and builders. Productivity growth, he will say, is the only route: "There is no shortcut to a lower cost of living."