Russia has postponed its Donetsk region deadline 16 times, analyst says
Ukrainian military analyst Denys Popovych says Russia's deadline for capturing the entire Donetsk region has been pushed back 16 times, with the current pace of advance offering no sign the goal will be reached soon.
The Donetsk region remains one of the main directions of Russia's offensive in Ukraine, but Moscow's deadlines for seizing the entire territory keep being postponed. Ukrainian military analyst Denys Popovych told the outlet "24 Kanal" that the deadline has already been changed 16 times, and the current pace of Russian advances gives no indication the Kremlin could achieve its goal anytime soon.
According to the analyst, fully capturing Donetsk region matters to the Kremlin not only militarily but also politically — it could be presented to Russian society as a victory justifying the full-scale invasion.
Experienced commanders in defense
Popovych notes that more important than how front sectors are divided among Ukrainian units is which commanders Kyiv has sent to the Donetsk direction — including Andriy Biletsky and Denys Prokopenko. This shows Ukraine has no intention of giving up the part of the region still under its control, with the task being to hold the defense and disrupt Russian plans.
Slow pace of advance
Russia's offensive relies heavily on prolonged infantry assaults with heavy losses rather than deep encirclement maneuvers. Small-group infiltration tactics are increasingly used, which have caused problems, such as near Dobropillia, but have not led to a large-scale breakthrough.
According to Popovych, this is where the Kremlin's problem lies — Putin's political goal exceeds what the Russian army can currently achieve by military means.
Warning against premature conclusions
At the same time, the analyst warns against concluding that the Russian army can no longer pose serious threats — Moscow still has considerable resources, and offensive operations continue along several parts of the front. There is currently no sufficiently large troop grouping near Kyiv or Chernihiv region for a broad offensive, but a more realistic scenario could be an attempt to create a buffer zone in Chernihiv region. For now, the Kremlin's main bet remains on Donetsk region.
