Russia could open a northern front by February if it orders new mobilization, Ukraine intel says

Ukraine's military intelligence agency says it currently has no evidence that Russia is preparing to launch an attack from the north. Despite this, Ukrainian officials are cautioning that the situation could shift in the coming months.

According to the intelligence assessment, Russia could open a new front along Ukraine's northern border as early as February, provided Moscow decides to order a fresh wave of mobilization. Additional mobilized troops would give Russia the manpower needed to establish a front in a direction that has not been a major combat zone so far.

Risk to existing fronts

Ukrainian officials warn that the opening of a northern front would place additional strain on the country's armed forces overall. Specifically, they say it could force Ukraine to redirect defenders and resources away from the east and south, where fighting is already concentrated.

Such a redistribution of forces could weaken Ukraine's positions in areas currently seeing the most intense combat, adding further pressure to existing defensive lines.

For now, the intelligence agency's warning is conditional, based on a possible scenario rather than confirmed indicators of an imminent attack. Officials note that without a new mobilization, Russia currently lacks the resources to open an additional front without weakening its existing offensive directions.